Expected Daily Ex-Dividend Points

When TXF trades above the TAIEX spot index, that's a "premium"; below spot is a "discount." Basis reflects the market's expectation for the index — and also embeds the ex-dividend effect.

April–September is when most Taiwan-listed companies go ex-dividend, which mechanically subtracts points from the index. The futures market prices in this certain future index drop ahead of time, pushing futures below spot and widening the discount — that's not a bearish signal, it's the ex-dividend effect being priced in early.

Futures already price in the ex-dividend evaporation that's certain to happen before expiry, so the market basis (TXF − TAIEX) you see already embeds that effect — premiums get compressed, discounts get exaggerated. Adding back the cumulative future ex-dividend points (from tomorrow) restores that already-priced-in-but-not-yet-happened amount, isolating the market's real directional view net of the ex-dividend effect.

Reconciled basis = market basis + cumulative ex-dividend points — the basis the market would theoretically show if there were no more ex-dividend effect ahead. A higher number than the raw market basis (even flipping from negative to positive) means the market leans more bullish once ex-dividend effects are stripped out; the bigger the gap between the two, the more the ex-dividend effect is currently distorting the basis.

Points through today are backed out from actual ex-dividend events ("Announced"); from tomorrow they are estimates ("Estimated"). Cumulative points sum the estimated future points from tomorrow on and never reset; today and earlier are already in the index, so they show "—". A settlement-day cell's cumulative = that contract's total ex-dividend adjustment through expiry — the number the formula above uses; for other contract months, read their own settlement-day cell.